How to Bet on the Underdog: When Backing the Outsider Makes Sense

Updated October 2026 · By the BetGhanaHub team

Everybody loves an underdog story. A small club knocking a giant out of the cup, the Black Stars stunning a bigger nation, a boxer nobody rated winning on the night. Underdog betting taps into that magic, and when done carefully, it can be one of the smarter ways to approach betting. Done carelessly, it's just throwing cedis at long odds. Let me show you the difference, my brother.

What is an underdog?

The underdog is the side the bookmaker thinks is less likely to win. Their odds are longer than the favourite's. In football, if Team A is 1.60 and Team B is 5.50, Team B is the underdog. In basketball or American sports, the underdog often has a plus sign in American odds, like +200, or a plus handicap, like +6.5 points.

Being the underdog doesn't mean a team is bad. A strong club can be the underdog away to a stronger one. It simply reflects the bookmaker's view of the likely outcome on that particular day.

Why underdogs can offer value

The idea behind underdog betting is value. Value exists when the true chance of something is higher than the chance implied by the odds. Underdogs sometimes offer value for a few reasons:

• Public money on favourites. Big, popular clubs attract lots of casual bets. Bookmakers can shorten their prices, which can lengthen the price on the opponent.
• Fans overrate big names. A famous club's reputation can outlast its current form.
• Bettors chase "safe" wins. Many punters build accumulators with favourites, adding more money to that side.

This doesn't mean every underdog is good value. Many underdogs are underdogs because they are genuinely weaker. The skill is telling the difference.

Reading underdog odds

Convert odds to a chance: divide 1 by the decimal odds. An underdog at 5.00 implies a 20% chance; at 3.50, about 28.6%; at 8.00, 12.5%. Ask yourself: do I genuinely think this team wins more often than that? If you can't explain why with specific reasons, it's not a value bet, just a hope.

Remember too that underdogs lose most of the time. Even a great underdog bet at 4.00 loses three times out of four if the true chance is about 25 to 30%. You need patience and a stake size that survives long losing runs.

Markets for backing underdogs

Straight win (1X2 or moneyline)

The highest price and highest risk. You need the underdog to win outright.

Double chance

Underdog or draw. Much lower odds, but you only lose if the favourite wins. Useful in football, where draws are common.

Draw no bet

You back the underdog to win; if it's a draw, you get your stake back. A middle ground.

Asian handicap

The underdog starts with a goal advantage, such as +0.5, +1 or +1.5. At +1.5, they can lose by one goal and your bet still wins. This turns "will they win?" into "will they keep it close?", which is often more realistic.

Point spreads

In basketball and American football, the underdog gets points, like +7.5. They must lose by less than the spread or win outright.

To qualify

In two-legged cup ties, an underdog that wins the first leg or stays close may have a decent chance of going through. "To qualify" includes extra time and penalties.

Situations that can favour underdogs

Strong home advantage

Underdogs playing at home in front of passionate crowds, especially on difficult pitches or after long away trips for the favourite, can punch above their weight. Ghana Premier League home sides are a classic example; travel and pitch conditions are part of the league's character.

Fixture congestion for the favourite

A big club between two important European or cup matches may rotate. The underdog sees a weaker line-up than the price suggests.

Motivation gaps

Late in the season, a relegation-threatened underdog fighting for survival may play with far more urgency than a mid-table favourite with nothing to play for.

Derbies and rivalries

Local derbies, like Asante Kotoko against Hearts of Oak, often defy form. Emotion and intensity can level the gap.

Cup matches

Lower-division teams playing at home in cup competitions sometimes cause upsets, especially against rotated favourites.

Style matchups

A defensively organised underdog facing a favourite that struggles to break down deep blocks can make goals hard to come by, keeping the match close.

Situations where underdogs are usually just underdogs

• Big quality gaps with the favourite at full strength and fully motivated.
• Underdogs with major injuries or suspensions.
• Underdogs in bad form, conceding often, with a manager under pressure.
• Long trips for the underdog after a midweek match.

Staking for longer odds

Underdog betting means accepting more losing bets in exchange for bigger wins when they come. Your staking must handle that.

• Use smaller stakes for longer odds. Some punters stake less on a 6.00 underdog than a 2.00 selection, to keep their bankroll steady.
• Expect losing runs. Five or six underdog losses in a row is normal, even with good judgement.
• Don't chase. Increasing stakes after underdog losses is how bankrolls disappear.
• Judge results over months, not weeks. Underdog betting is lumpy.

A worked example (illustrative numbers)

A big club is away to a mid-table side three days after a Champions League match, and the manager has hinted at rotation. The home side is 4.50 to win, implied 22%. You've watched both teams and think the home side, at home against a rotated favourite, wins closer to 28% of the time. You don't fully trust a straight win, so you also look at home +1 Asian handicap at 1.95, which wins if the home team wins or draws, and refunds your stake if they lose by exactly one. You decide on a flat GH₵10 stake on the handicap, after confirmed line-ups show heavy rotation. Whatever happens, you record the bet and your reasoning.

Line movement: what the market tells you

Odds move between when a market opens and kick-off. If an underdog's price shortens from 5.00 to 4.20, money or news has moved towards it, perhaps team news about the favourite or bettors who believe the underdog is undervalued. If it drifts from 4.00 to 5.00, the opposite has happened.

Many experienced punters judge their bets by whether they beat the closing price, the final odds before kick-off. If you regularly take underdog prices that are longer than where they close, that's a sign your judgement is ahead of the market, even when individual bets lose. If your underdogs regularly drift after you bet, the market disagrees with you, and it's worth rethinking your approach. Record the price you took and the closing price for each bet to track this.

The Black Stars and underdog thinking

Ghanaian punters know underdog stories well from the national team. The Black Stars have produced memorable results against bigger nations over the years, and they've also struggled against supposedly weaker sides. That's the lesson: reputation and recent form can mislead in both directions. When betting on international matches, look at the actual squads available, the venue, travel, the importance of the match and how both teams have played recently, not just their history or ranking.

Be extra careful betting on your own national team. Patriotic money pushes prices, and your heart makes you see value that isn't there. If you can't be neutral about a Black Stars match, it's often best to enjoy it without a stake.

The psychology of underdog betting

Underdog betting tests your patience more than favourite betting. You'll lose more often, sometimes for long stretches, and it's easy to lose confidence or start doubling stakes to "catch up". Prepare for that before you start:

• Accept that losing runs are normal. Five losses in a row with underdogs around 4.00 is not unusual at all.
• Judge yourself on the quality of your reasoning and the prices you took, not on the last result.
• Don't switch to favourites in frustration after a bad week, or back to underdogs after a big win. Stick to your method.
• Remember that one big underdog win can make you overconfident. Keep stakes the same after wins too.

An underdog checklist

1. Why is this team the underdog? Is that reason still valid today?
2. What specific factor makes their chance higher than the odds suggest: rotation, motivation, home advantage, style?
3. Have I checked confirmed line-ups?
4. Would double chance or a plus handicap express my view better than a straight win?
5. Have I compared prices on at least two sites?
6. Is my stake small enough to survive a long losing run?

If you can't answer the second question clearly, the bet is probably hope, not value.

Underdogs in the Ghana Premier League

The GPL is a league where home advantage, travel and conditions often matter a lot. Long road trips between regions, heavy pitches in the rainy season, and intense crowds at smaller grounds can all make visiting favourites uncomfortable. That's why home underdogs in the GPL can sometimes be interesting, particularly against a favourite that has just travelled far or played midweek.

At the same time, GPL data is thinner than for European leagues, markets may be priced with higher margins, and fixtures can be rescheduled. Keep stakes small, check settlement rules for postponed matches, and lean on what you actually know from watching the teams, not on reputation. A club's name, whether Kotoko, Hearts or anyone else, doesn't guarantee anything on a given afternoon.

Tracking your underdog bets

Keep a simple record: date, match, market, price taken, closing price, stake, result and one line on why you bet. After 50 or more underdog bets, look at three numbers: your total profit or loss, your average price, and how often you beat the closing price. Fifty bets is still a small sample for longer odds, so don't draw huge conclusions, but it will start to show whether your approach has any merit. If after a long period you're consistently losing and consistently getting worse prices than the close, it's time to rethink or stop.

Underdogs and live betting

Sometimes the best time to back an underdog is after kick-off. If an underdog starts well, holds its shape and creates chances, but the score is still 0-0, its live price may still reflect the pre-match view for a while. Equally, if a favourite scores early against the run of play, the underdog's price can lengthen sharply even though it has been the better side. Live betting on underdogs works best when you've planned the situation in advance and are watching closely. Remember that streams lag behind the bookmaker's data, and keep live stakes smaller than pre-match ones.

Myths about underdog betting

• "Underdogs are always value." No. Many are priced correctly, and some are even too short because of sentimental money.
• "Upsets come in waves." Each match is separate. A weekend of upsets doesn't make the next weekend more or less likely to have them.
• "Longer odds mean the bookie is worried." Long odds simply reflect a low expected chance and the bookmaker's margin.
• "If I keep backing underdogs, I'll eventually hit a big one." You probably will, but that doesn't mean you'll be ahead overall once all the losing bets in between are counted.

Underdog accumulators: careful

Combining several underdogs in one accumulator produces enormous odds, but the chances of all winning are tiny. A three-leg underdog accumulator at 4.00 each is 64.00, with roughly a 1.5% chance if each leg has a 25% true chance. That's a lottery ticket, not a strategy. If you like underdogs, bet them as singles.

Underdog betting on different sports

Football

Draws are common, so double chance and Asian handicaps help.

Basketball

Point spreads are the main way to back underdogs; outright upsets happen but are less common in the NBA than many expect.

Tennis

Underdogs can win sets even when they lose matches; set betting and game handicaps offer alternatives to the outright price.

Boxing and MMA

One punch or submission can change everything, so upsets happen. But mismatches exist too; research styles and recent performances.

Where to bet

Compare prices on two or three sites. Underdog odds can vary more between bookmakers than favourite odds, so shopping around matters. Ghana-licensed operators, regulated by the Gaming Commission of Ghana under Act 721, accept cedis and mobile money. Offshore crypto books like Cloudbet, licensed in Curaçao and not in Ghana, offer deep Asian handicap markets but no local regulatory protection.

Bet responsibly

Underdog betting can be exciting, but losing runs are part of it. Keep a fixed budget, small stakes and good records. If betting causes stress, call the Mental Health Authority's free line on 0800 678 678, or the Gaming Commission of Ghana on 0800 454 545 about self-exclusion. More help is on our responsible gambling page.